Parsons, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

968
FXUS63 KICT 051928
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
228 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances will linger tonight and again for Sunday afternoon
and evening as a weak cold front remains across the area.

- Storm chances will remain for the first few days of the work week,
with the better chances generally during the overnight hours.

- Temperatures will remain fairly close to seasonal averages for
this time of year, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Currently have some shortwave energy tracking across IA/Northern MO
with a more robust piece of energy moving across the Northern
Rockies. Also have a weak surface front/trough that extends from
southeast Nebraska into west/central KS.

Very high PW airmass has shifted east and now extends from central
OK through eastern KS. There will be a chance for iso storms to
develop along the front late this afternoon into the early evening
across northeast and central KS. Confidence is high that any
activity would be very isolated. There is also some model agreement
in storms developing over northeast KS around or shortly after
00z and sinking slowly south through the overnight hours.
Additional storms will also develop late this afternoon over
eastern CO and will work east and may affect parts of central KS
after 06z.

Weak cold front will linger across mainly southern KS on Sun and
will be the focus for storm development late Sun afternoon into the
evening hours. Dewpoints in the low 70s will provide plenty of
instability with ML CAPE values expected to be in the 2500-3000J/kg
range. However, shear will remain weak, with 0-6km bulk shear in the
15-20kt range. So main hazard from storms will be wet downburst
winds and high rainfall rates. Storms are also expected to once
again develop late Sun afternoon/evening across northwest KS/sw
Nebraska and dive southeast Sun night, moving into the forecast area
after 03z Mon.

For Mon-Wed, upper ridging is expected to strengthen over the Desert
Southwest into the Southern Rockies with northwest flow from the
Northern Rockies through the Mid Mississippi Valley. This setup
will keep the warmer mid level temps west/southwest of the
forecast area and will also keep us under an area of broad upper
diffluence. Current thinking is that the most likely scenario
will be for storms to come off the High Plains and potentially
impact the forecast area during the overnight hours. Upper ridge
will start to break down Wed night-Thu night as some shortwave
energy comes onshore over Northern CA and slides across the
Central Great Basin. Ahead of this wave, above normal temps are
expected for Thu, with high in the mid/upper 90s.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

MVFR ceilings continue to slowly scatter out early this
afternoon at HUT, ICT, and CNU. Southerly winds will remain
light through the majority of this TAF period. This evening, a
weak front will slowly sink southward with some showers and
thunderstorms developing along it. Confidence on direct
thunderstorm impacts to RSL, GBD, and SLN remains low at this
time hence only PROB30 mentions have been added. Any
thunderstorm that develops will be capable of small hail and
gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...WI