Parsons, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

915
FXUS63 KICT 222324
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
524 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool on Monday, then above normal temperatures return
  beginning Tuesday.

- Very high grassland fire danger expected Tuesday, Friday, and
  Saturday.

- Dry through mid-week before chances for light rain return
  Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate strong
northwest flow aloft over the Plains as the mid/upper ridge builds
over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure situated across the
region has allowed for light to breezy north winds throughout the
forecast area under mostly clear skies. This setup will allow for
the continuation of seasonably cool to below-normal temperatures in
the near term, with lows tonight expected to dip into the teens and
highs Monday afternoon mostly in the 40s. Winds will gradually turn
around to the south throughout the day as high pressure slides east
toward the Ohio River Valley.

The return of southerly flow at the surface will allow for above
normal high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Mid/long range guidance then highlights mid-level energy
diving southeast across the Northern Plains and shunting a cold
front through the forecast area Wednesday evening into Thursday.
This will bring modest chances (30-50%) for rain back to the region
along with a brief cooling of afternoon highs near 60 on Thursday.
NBM probabilities of receiving less than 0.10" are in the 70-80%
range for most of the area during this period, so we are not
expecting anything more than light rain for this event.

Looking ahead to the extended period, ensemble guidance (EPS/CMC)
suggests the arrival of a cold front Saturday and the potential
return of cooler temperatures and additional light precipitation for
the weekend. Details remain a bit unclear at this time, especially
given disagreement from GEFS solutions that keep the area relatively
warm and dry. Stay tuned as additional information becomes available.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Light northerly
winds will shift to easterly overnight. Winds will continue to
shift to southerly by 18z and pick up in speeds especially for
sites in central to south-central Kansas. Sustained winds will
be between 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Strong south/southwest winds sustained at 15-20 mph and gusting up
to 30 mph will combine with RH values in the 20-30% range to produce
very high grassland fire danger for areas southeast of the Kansas
Turnpike Tuesday afternoon.

A similar combination of weather conditions is expected to result in
very high grassland fire danger during the afternoon hours on Friday
and Saturday, especially for areas along and east of the Flint
Hills.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...GC
FIRE WEATHER...JWK